| New article! Continuation Betting by Roy |
| 05/23/2008 |
| A lot of my students have asked me the question "What percentage of the time should I be CBing? Because right now I'm continuation betting 100% of the time..". I don't know the exact perfect number but I believe the correct stat is somewhere around 70% of the time... |
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Now of course this leads to other questions - what are good/bad boards for cbetting? What about different types of opponents? When should you check behind? How does position affect this? What about against multiple opponents?
So I'm going to answer these questions and hopefully help a few people out who want to know more on the topic. Pages and pages could be written on this subject going into every possibly scenario so i'll just focus on the most common situations that arise.
1) We're playing a 6max game of 5/10 NLHE and everybody is full stacked. We're in the CO with 77 and raise to $35. The button, small blind and big blind all call. They are all fairly competent players. The flop comes down QJ8 with a flush draw and the SB and BB both check - should you bet here? Definitely not. Why? Because this is the type of board that is likely to have hit the hand range of someone who calls a pre-flop raise, for example if they have KQ or JT or T9 or 88 or suited cards that has a flush draw they will either call or raise your bet and you will either have to fold or you'll be putting money in the pot when you're behind their range. Some people might say "but betting is the only way we'll win the pot" and while this is likely to be true, it is okay to sometimes let pots go. Poker isn't about trying to win every single hand, it's about trying to make your opponents make costly mistakes while you avoid doing the same and betting with 77 in this spot would be a mistake.
2) We're playing in the same game as in example 1 but this time are under the gun with AQo and make it $35. It folds to the small blind who calls the bet and the bb folds. The small blind is a bit loose preflop but plays a straight forward game and doesn't make a lot of moves. The flop coms down K72 rainbow (no flush draw) and the SB checks. Is this a good spot to bet? Yes it certainly is - there aren't many better spots in fact. The fact of the matter is that we can represent having a strong hand on this board far better than the small blind can. When we think about what type of hands he would call an early position raise with out of the SB then we see that his range is comprised mostly of pocket pairs and possibly some suited connectors that are trying to hit big - most of which would have missed the flop, and since we know he doesn't make a lot of moves the most likely course of action he would take is to check-fold to our bet.
Boards where there is one high card and two low cards without a flush draw are almost always great to continuation bet as it is very hard for those types of boards to connect with a hand, meaning that your opponents will rarely have anything worthy of continuing with. It is usually profitable to fire out a CB even into a field of 3 or 4 players since it is so unlikely that they would have connected.
A general rule is that the more opponents that are in the pot, the less likely you should be to CB without a strong hand or draw as it is usually likely that at least one of them has hit. The above example is an exception to this.
A sidenote: poker ‘rules’ are almost never meant to be exclusively followed. They are meant to be used as a guide in making decisions - but there are always exceptions.
The above two examples have shown two extreme situations - one where you should never CB and one where you should always CB. So let’s look at some closer spots:
3) Same game conditions. We’re OTB with AKo and the CO raises to $35. We 3-bet to $110 and the CO calls. The CO is a bit of a wild card - he plays too loose to be profitable but is also quite aggressive making plays at pots in situations that might go against conventional wisdom. Basically we can’t be sure when he raises whether he’s going to be bluffing or raising with a made hand - certainly not the easiest of players to play against. The flop comes JT7 with 2 hearts and we don’t have a heart. The CO checks and it’s on us - should we c-bet? No we shouldn’t, this is a good board to check it back. Why?
Our hand has a decent amount of equity against most hands at this point but it is not strong enough to withstand a checkraise. If we bet and the CO raises which he is liable to do with a pair/set/2pair or some sort of straight or flush draw (or even as a pure bluff) then we have to fold a hand which could have improved to beat the opponents hand (or may have already been ahead if he was raising with a draw). By checking behind we get to control the pot and use position to our advantage - we have 3 clean outs to the nuts (any non heart Q) and an ace or king might give us the best hand too to overtake him (ie if he had a hand such as QJ or 99). While there is a chance that betting will get him to fold some hands ahead of ours, the value gained from that is not greater than the value in checking.
4) Same game conditions. We’re in the BB with AQs the the BTN opens to $35. The BTN is a good aggressive player who is a winner in these games and capable of making moves. We 3-bet to $110 and the BTN calls. The flop comes down T97 with 2 spades and we don’t have spades. Should we c-bet? Definitely not. Why?
This is a spot where the flop is extremely likely to have helped our opponent and we won’t get folds often enough to make our bet profitable. When he calls our 3-bet we would assume he has some sort of pocket pair (the most likely ones are 77-JJ as 22-66 may fold and QQ-AA may 4-bet) or suited connector type of hands (again, the middle-high ones are more likely and those connect best with this flop). This is another spot where the only way we’ll win the pot is by betting, but we won’t win it often enough for betting to be profitable so it’s okay to ‘let it go’.
5) Same game conditions. We’re OTB with A2s and raise to $35 and the BB calls. The BB is an unknown player and we have no reads. The flop comes down AJ6 rainbow and the BB checks - should we bet? This is a spot that a lot of people will be but I feel a check is definitely better. Our hand is fairly weak and a bet won’t get called by many worse hands - and if we do get a call by a hand like QJ then it’s unlikely that we will get any more value out of them on later streets. The concept and question to ask in this hand is ‘how many streets of value can I get?’. If you check the flop you are able to induce bluffs from weak hands that would have folded to a flop bet, and you also get deception value and the chance to get more value out of a worse hand who doesn’t believe you because the opponent might think “why would anyone check an Ace on that flop? My QJ must be good!”.
6) Same game conditions. We’re OTB with KK. UTG limps and we raise it to $45, the SB and BB both call. All of the players play straightforward games. The flop comes KT8 with 2 spades and they all check to us. Do you bet here or is it a good spot to slowplay? You should bet 100% of the time here. Why?
There are a couple of reasons to bet in this spot. One is to build a pot - we want to get as much money in the pot as possible with a hand as strong as ours and betting is the best way to do that. Another reason is to protect our hand. While it is very strong it is also vulnerable to straights and flushes completing on the turn and we don’t want to allow a hand such as AQ to hit a Jack and make a straight when they would have folded to our flop bet. On the flip side we don’t want a scare card to fall (say the Queen of Spades) and lose value against someone who had T8 for 2pair - if we bet the flop there is a good chance that they would raise and get the money in but on the turn their hand is no longer very strong and it’s unlikely they will stack off. Slowplaying in general is a concept that is overused and misused by most - with hands like this one being a very common spot that people incorrectly decide to slowplay.
I could go on listing scenario after scenario with each one slightly different but that’s mostly redundant - I think the examples I’ve given cover a fairly broad scope on good and bad spots to c-bet. If anyone has any specific questions or wants to discuss it further then feel free to make a post in our NLHE Strategy Forum or contact me directly.
To read more articles please see the articles section - updated regularly! |
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